A divided country
The war of 1992-1995 shook Bosnia-Herzegovina. A whole part of the population was displaced. From an institutional point of view, the country has been divided into three entities since the end of the conflict: the Bosnian Serb Republic (49 per cent of the territory), which is mainly populated by Bosnian Serbs of the Christian Orthodox faith, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (50 per cent of the territory), where, depending on the canton, Muslim Bosnians or Catholic Christian Bosnian Croats dominate, and the small district of Brčko (1 per cent of the territory), the only entity to have retained its pre-war multicommunity character. Thus, with a few exceptions, Bosniaks, Bosnian-Serbs and Bosnian-Croats now live separately in areas that were once mixed. Added to this is the strong resentment of displaced families and former combatants who support nationalist political parties with little regard for the general interest of the nation. This results in institutional blockages. In the absence of consensus, national cultural institutions are in crisis, as in the case of the National Museum in Sarajevo, which has remained closed for several years and is still suffering from a lack of funding. Another example on health issues: in the face of the coronavirus, the Serbian Republic of Bosnia has adopted much more lax measures than the other two entities, resulting in a deplorable health situation.
A complex political framework
The Dayton Accords, signed in Paris on December 14, 1995, govern the functioning of the country's institutions. Although they put an end to the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, they created the conditions for the current division of the country. Already, it is these agreements that gave birth to the three political entities that are the Bosnian Serb Republic, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Brčko District. Each has a large degree of autonomy with a constitution, a president (except for the Brčko District), a government and a parliament. At the national level, the country is governed by a collegiate presidency of three elected officials, each representing one of the main communities. This system means that each community votes for its own political parties. Not only is there no room for cross-community parties, but minorities (Roma, Albanians, Montenegrins, etc.) must register as "Bosnians," "Serbs," "Croats" or "others" in order to vote. Finally, the highest political power is held by a foreigner. This is the "High International Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since its creation in 1995, this position has been entrusted to politicians from EU countries - the former German Minister of Agriculture, Christian Schmidt, has held this post since 2021. Assisted by an American diplomat, the High Representative has broad prerogatives, such as the power to dismiss corrupt local officials. While he has played an important role in the past, for example by imposing a single system for license plates or by indexing the national currency to the euro, he remains outside most of the debates that are shaking society today.
A risk of splintering
In the Bosnian Serb Republic, a majority of the political class wants independence for its entity, raising fears of a new war. The idea is supported by Milorad Dodik. Born in Banja Luka in 1959, he is the strong man of the Bosnian Serb entity. President of the latter since 2010, he is an ultranationalist and enjoys the support not only of the leaders of Serbia, but also of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Thus, since 2021, Milorad Dodik has undertaken to block the country's central institutions (justice, taxes, army) by displaying his "contempt" for Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, despite his victory in the October 2022 elections (with a strong suspicion of electoral fraud), his secession project is being held back. On the one hand, Western countries see the independence of the Bosnian Serb Republic as a violation of the Dayton accords and threaten the entity with strong sanctions in case of secession. On the other hand, since February 2022, the war in Ukraine has cracked the unity of Serbian nationalists supported by Vladimir Putin. In Serbia, a majority of them have condemned the Russian aggression and want to avoid confronting the Western bloc head-on for fear of sanctions. Milorad Dodik is therefore isolated. Similarly, some Bosnian-Croat nationalists, who also benefited from Russian support, have since the war in Ukraine muted their separatist project in the cantons populated mainly by Bosnian-Croats, in Tropolje and Herzegovina.
Traces of the war
They are visible everywhere, from the portraits of war criminals painted on the walls of Srebrenica to the impacts of explosions or sniper fire in the streets of Sarajevo. Despite billions of euros in international aid for reconstruction, the country has still not completely healed its wounds. A large number of factories in the automotive, arms and aeronautics sectors have closed down permanently because of the conflict, leading to high unemployment and a massive exodus of young people. But the deepest scars remain invisible. These are the psychological disorders suffered by the veterans, the war wounded and orphans, the relatives of the victims' families, the raped women and the hundreds of thousands of internal refugees. Special pensions and NGOs provide some relief from these sufferings. But sometimes all it takes is one sentence, one word in a conversation, to revive memories of a conflict that is still very vivid in the collective memory, including among the younger generations born after 1995. It is on this soil that the nationalist parties that pollute Bosnian political life today have flourished. It is recommended to approach with caution all questions related to the conflicts that the country went through during the 20th century.
Foreign interference
It is official and quite beneficial in the case of the European Union. It appoints the international high representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina, finances all kinds of projects and runs a military peacekeeping mission, the European force Althea (named after the Greek goddess of healing Althea), which today has about 1,600 soldiers. The EU is above all a horizon of hope for the inhabitants. The country submitted its application for membership in 2016 and was recognized as an "official candidate" in 2022. This translates into convergence in standards and laws, but also into increased financial support. However, no agreement on customs duties is yet on the agenda. This remains an obstacle to trade, especially with Germany, Croatia, Italy and Austria, the country's main economic partners. The influence of the United States also remains very strong. It has a huge embassy in Sarajevo and a diplomat at the top of the government to assist the High Representative. Washington, which defined the terms of the Dayton agreement under President Bill Clinton, remains very involved, particularly in guaranteeing the integrity of the country in the face of the Bosnian-Serb nationalists supported by Moscow. Croatia and Serbia, neighbouring and belligerent nations during the Bosnian conflict, are also moving forward. For example, Bosnian-Serb inhabitants can benefit from the Serbian nationality offered by Belgrade. Zagreb does the same with Bosnian-Croats, with the added attraction of access to the European Union that goes with Croatian citizenship. The Bosnian community is the target of a seduction operation launched by the rich Muslim countries of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar...). Since the end of the war, they have been financing mosques and media (including the major news channel Al Jazeera Balkans launched in 2011), but also religious organizations, with the result that radical Islamism is on the rise, albeit marginally, but which has already caused acts of terrorism. Finally, Turkey is present throughout the former Yugoslavia. Here, Ankara is restoring mosques, promoting Turkish investments and securing opinion leaders, especially among the Bosnian and Bosnian-Serb communities.
A Bosnian identity despite everything
Despite its divisions, Bosnia-Herzegovina has a true national identity. Already, the inhabitants all speak the same language. Of course, there are now three "official languages": Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian. But the differences are small: some vocabulary words, the frequent use of Cyrillic for Serbian and some regional particularities. So much so that Bosnians of all origins can speak to each other and follow roughly the same programs on television. They are also very attached to their history, especially to the figure of the Bosnian kings and the stećci of the Middle Ages. They share the same passions for sports and playing sports, local traditional music, street food (bureks and ćevapi) and mountains and rivers. On the ground, associations of mountain dwellers or environmentalists campaign together to safeguard the environment. While mixed marriages are now rare, they were common before the war. Thus, many children of double culture today become adults and continue to make the link between the communities. From a genetic point of view, the Bosnians as a whole have also inherited from their prehistoric ancestors a particularism that makes them the greatest men in Europe.
