Reunification at an impasse
Divided since 1963 and partially occupied by Turkey since 1974, can Cyprus ever be reunited? Today, while tensions between communities have largely subsided, the end of the division has never seemed so far away. Discussions on the reunification of Cyprus, which have been going on since 1975, have been repeatedly interrupted. However, while they had always ended up resuming, now everything is at a standstill. The start of the "gas war" (see below) brought the last negotiations to an abrupt end on 7 July 2017. Today, the inhabitants seem resigned to living apart. It is true, traffic is now easier since the opening of the first crossing point in 2003 (9 today). But the cultural gap between the two parts of the island is widening year by year. In the northern part, daily life remains complex, not only because of the strong military presence, but also because of the economic blockade and the lack of political recognition. As for the inhabitants of the southern part, the majority of them have never crossed the buffer zone. This choice was motivated by fear, but above all by the refusal to comply with the controls imposed by Turkey. In fact, tourists are the only ones who really take advantage of the crossing points with a carelessness that shocks many Cypriots.
The "gas war
Since 2009, the discovery of huge natural gas reserves is changing the economic situation in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey, the only player in the region without access to these offshore resources, is contesting the delineation of maritime borders. And, above all, Ankara is relying on the northern part of Cyprus, occupied by its troops, to assert exploitation rights around the island. It is a real cold war that has thus begun in 2017. The Turkish navy occupies part of the Cypriot territorial waters with warships and exploration vessels. Faced with it, the international community condemns and organizes itself. A regional alliance has been set up with military and commercial treaties between Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Lebanon and Egypt. And the military fleets of several European states are now permanently patrolling off the island. This is the case of France and Italy, which intend in particular to protect the consortium of oil companies Total and Eni, which has been entrusted with one of the Cypriot exploitation areas. The stakes are enormous, especially since the Russian war in Ukraine and the debate on the energy independence of the European Union.
Desertification, erosion and water shortage
Peppers from the Netherlands, lamb from New Zealand, wines from Italy...: we rarely eat local in Cyprus. For the 5.5 million tourists who stay here every year, almost everything has to be imported. Not very good for the carbon footprint. But the worst part is that you have to bring in water too. Since 2016, the northern part has been supplied by a 70-km pipeline between Turkey and Cape Kormakitis. And if the Troodos massif allows the southern part to be still self-sufficient in water, the construction of golf courses and tens of thousands of villas with swimming pools has led to the desertification of the island since the mid-1990s. In 2019, a European Commission report pointed out the disastrous consequences of the erosion of the southern coastline, while a geological study predicted the retreat of part of the coastline at Akrotiri and Larnaka. The discharge of polluted water also endangers underwater fauna and flora. Apart from the air quality, which is judged to be very good, all the indicators are red. In the short term, water scarcity and global warming could lead to a rise in temperatures. Tourism professionals are even expecting a drop in visitor numbers in the summer, as temperatures are expected to rise. In short, if nothing is done to rethink the current model in Cyprus, intensive tourism will end up killing tourism.
The Brexit puzzle
Since independence in 1960, the island has maintained close relations with its former colonial power. The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union will therefore have far-reaching consequences here. Since the 2016 referendum in the United Kingdom, Cyprus knows that it will be the fourth EU country most affected by Brexit after Ireland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. It is feared that the number of British tourists, who previously accounted for a third of visitors, will fall. It is also to be expected that some of Her Majesty's approximately 150,000 subjects with a house on the island will leave. For their part, Cypriot shipowners, who own the 11th largest merchant fleet in the world, have already begun to transfer their financial interests from London to Singapore. The government of Nicosia, for its part, is looking for new investors in South-East Asia. Finally, the large Cypriot diaspora in the United Kingdom fears that links with their island of origin will become less easy. Another effect of the Brexit: customs controls between the Republic of Cyprus and the Sovereign Base Territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia will have to be re-established. This confetti of Empire (2.76% of the island's surface area) is one of the three British possessions sharing a land border with an EU state, the other two being Ulster in Ireland and Gibraltar in Spain. In Cyprus, traffic is likely to become almost impossible on the south coast if permanent border posts are set up. The western suburb of Limassol and a section of the road leading to Paphos are in the enclave of Akrotiri. As for Dhekelia, it literally cuts the southern part between Larnaka and Agia Napa in half. Moreover, it will be a headache for the 7,700 Greek Cypriots living in the two enclaves and for the 2,500 Greek and Turkish Cypriots working for the British Ministry of Defence. All of this will provide fuel for the militants who are calling for the territory to be annexed to the Republic of Cyprus. London does not intend to give up its last air base in the Mediterranean. The only concession envisaged would be to cede certain villages, but only in the event of reunification.
