Towards more democracy and less corruption
Kenya's political trajectory remains fraught with challenges and surprises, demonstrating that the country's democracy still needs to be strengthened. Corruption among members of successive governments remains a significant impediment. Kenya's domestic politics are regularly marked by corruption scandals that tarnish the image of the political class and provoke strong popular reactions.
The election of Mwai Kibaki in 2002 was greeted by the population as a hope for renewal and a second independence, but it was not to be, given the political crisis of 2007-08. Kenya took several years to recover from the ethnic violence. In 2013, Uhuru Kenyatta, who was embroiled in a legal battle with the International Criminal Court, was chosen by a narrow margin over Odinga. William Ruto, his vice president, was also indicted. On August 8, 2017, the Kenyan Supreme Court invalidated the presidential election won by the outgoing head of state, Uhuru Kenyatta. At issue were "irregularities" in the transmission of results compromising the integrity of the election. This is a first in Kenya and on the African continent, but it is a testament to the independence of the Kenyan judiciary. The court ordered a new election to be held. Uhuru Kenyatta finally wins this election. Despite an agreement reached in March 2018, with the leader of the opposition, Raila Odinga, deep social, ethnic, political divisions remain. However, the weight of Kenyan civil society is growing over time on the front lines of major debates. Some influential voices, carried by an educated elite, which the authorities can no longer ignore, are undeniably pulling the country upwards.
A strategic position in East Africa
The situation in Somalia, in crisis since 1991, remains a major concern for Kenya. In 2011, fearing incursions by the Islamist militia Al-Shebab on its territory, Kenya intervened in Somalia and created a buffer zone along the border. Since 2012, Kenyan forces have been part of the African Union mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The country has suffered several major attacks (the Westgate shopping mall in 2013, Garissa University in 2015, the Dusit D2 complex in 2019, the U.S.-Kenya base at Camp Simba in 2020...) and threats of attacks are recurrent.
Kenya is home to nearly 500,000 refugees, mainly from South Sudan and Somalia, at the Kakuma and Dadaab sites. Since 2016, Nairobi has called for the closure of these two huge refugee camps, citing security reasons. Diplomatic relations between Kenya and Somalia also remain strained, particularly due to a dispute over the delineation of their maritime border. Nairobi and Mogadishu are disputing an area of 100,000 km2 rich in fish and hydrocarbons. The dispute is currently being examined by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
A founding member of the East African Community (EAC) with Tanzania and Uganda, Kenya also plays a major role in the development of the region (customs union, common market, monetary union project, tripartite free trade area). Kenya is also a member of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which groups the seven countries of the Horn of Africa, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Economic boom, yes, but..
Kenya is one of the five largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa and a regional trade hub. But despite the economic boom of the past 15 years, which has fostered the emergence of a middle class, the country remains highly unequal. The poverty rate is high and, according to the UN, between 3 and 3.5 million people face serious food insecurity. And while there have been notable efforts to improve security on Kenyan soil, and there has been a boom in infrastructure and the service sector in recent years, spending targets for health and education are still far from being met. As for public finances, despite phases of consolidation, they are now in the red.
Between 2014 and 2020, Kenya benefited from the European Development Fund to the tune of 435 million euros, for three sectors (food security, sustainable infrastructure, governance and the rule of law), but the public debt has continued to rise, reaching a critical threshold in 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic, which has only exacerbated this trend. Against this backdrop, Kenya is receiving substantial cyclical support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in 2021 is providing a new loan of $2.30 billion. Kenyans are concerned that their country is once again in debt and see this as a mismanagement of funds.
A diversified economy
Kenya has been able to develop its industry, export agriculture, tourism and because of its geographical position, the country has become a regional trade center. And even though historically the country has depended on four main sources of foreign exchange: coffee, tea, tourism (and... international aid), the multiplicity of sectors works and these can offset each other in times of crisis.
Kenya is primarily a service economy. By combining digital technologies and services, Kenya has been particularly innovative. This is notably the case with its M-Pesa mobile payment system, launched in 2007 and replicated around the world, or M-Akiba, a mobile Treasury bond subscription platform inaugurated in March 2017. With more than 50% of the country's population consisting of services, its level of development in this sector makes it a regional hub.
Kenya is particularly notable in the digital sector. Funds are pouring in to support the country's startups through incubators. For six months, a year or two, young entrepreneurs receive funding to develop their idea. Born in 2008 during the violence of the presidential elections, the online geolocation platform Ushahidi is a good example of this boom as it has become a global reference. The Kenyan government is building Konza Technology City (now Konza Technopolis), a 2,000-hectare high-tech park about 60 kilometers from Nairobi, in the middle of the savannah. About 50,000 jobs are expected to be created when it is completed in 2030.
The "Vision 2030" program
Launched in 2008, the Vision 2030 program aims to transform Kenya "into a newly industrialized middle-income country that provides its citizens with a high standard of living in a clean and secure environment" by 2030. It prioritizes infrastructure development and has resulted in a near doubling of the annual growth rate since the early 2010s. Despite this, the country remains highly unequal, with a high poverty rate and food assistance still affecting 2.6 million people. In the areas of health and education, the objectives are far from being achieved, particularly in terms of vocational training, while the economy suffers from a shortage of technical labor.
In the area of infrastructure, progress is undeniable. The development of the energy sector is notable, thanks in particular to the opening up of the sector to private investors, and Kenya can boast that its electricity mix is now 80% renewable. The same is true of access to water, which is progressing but has not yet become widespread. As for the transport sector, while the rehabilitation of the rail link between Mombasa and Nairobi - the president's major project - has been completed (albeit at the cost of massive debt to China), no Kenyan city has yet developed a mass urban transport system, and the sector is still dominated by informal minibuses, known as "matatus.
Environmental issues
Kenya is an example of nature conservation and there is a real commitment to environmental protection. The country is clear about the consequences of climate change, when repeated droughts over the years seriously threaten the survival of several million inhabitants. The government is committed to restoring 500,000 hectares of pasture in eleven arid counties in order to limit the future displacement of populations, preserve their livelihoods and the biodiversity of ecosystems. The survival of wildlife also depends on this, as they too struggle for access to water. The other issue is that of human infrastructure, which is increasingly interfering with animal movements. The new electrified railroad line from Mombasa to Nairobi, which passes through Nairobi National Park, the oldest park in East Africa (1946), and Tsavo National Park, has already caused controversy and changes in the behavior of animals living in these protected natural areas. Major road infrastructure projects also planned along this route will have dramatic consequences if nothing is done - or not done - to preserve this natural heritage.
