Economic growth at its best
Deprived of natural resources, Djibouti is banking on its exceptional geostrategic situation. According to a recent World Bank report, despite a difficult international situation due to the health crisis, the country should have the highest growth rate in Africa in 2021, with a forecast rate of 7.1%. Djibouti has the advantage of being located on one of the world's densest maritime corridors, which controls access to the Red Sea. The country has therefore embarked on ambitious port infrastructure projects. The new deepwater port of Doraleh is now one of the most efficient in the region. The railway between Djibouti and Addis Ababa, which had not been operating since 2010, was reopened in January 2018. Djibouti dreams of becoming a global air-sea freight hub, a hub for freight in Africa. In January 2021, the signing of a tripartite agreement between Ethiopian Airlines, Air Djibouti and the port of Djibouti will consolidate this ambition. The entry into service of the Djibouti International Free Zone (2018) as well as the mineral port of Goubet (2017) and that of Tadjourah (2017), extended by the road corridor linking Balho, a border post with Ethiopia, reinforce the whole.
A fifth term?
"Internal peace and good governance": these are the prerequisites for political action, in the words of Mr. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti, since 1999. Re-elected in 2016 with 86.68% of the vote in the first round, Mr. Guelleh is expected to remain at the helm and stand for a fifth term in April 2021. The economic and diplomatic record seems satisfactory, but there is still much to be done on the social front (especially in terms of housing and employment, as the unemployment rate has still not fallen below 60%). Within the opposition, calls for a boycott are multiplying and the attacks carried out by the armed group FRUD on various sites in Tadjourah, in the north-east of the country, in January 2021, only served to further dampen the atmosphere. The USN (Union for National Salvation) and the RADDE of the former mayor of Djibouti, Abdourahmane Guelleh, also consider that the technical and political conditions are not met to ensure transparent elections. No candidate will be presented.
An unstable region
Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Ethiopia, Eritrea... Djibouti is at the heart of an arc of crisis that stretches from the Sahel to the Middle East. The country is playing the stability card in a perilous diplomatic game with its direct neighbours. In the conflict that has raged in Yemen since 2015, Djibouti is providing political support to the Saudi-led coalition. The country is home to 30,000 refugees and asylum seekers from neighbouring countries, thousands of Ethiopians who transit Djibouti on foot each year in an attempt to reach Saudi Arabia through war-torn Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which separates Djibouti from Yemen, is trafficked by migrants and refugees in both directions. With Ethiopia, ties are growing closer around mutual economic and development interests, but peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea could pose a threat to its economic prosperity and the use of its port infrastructure. In this context, Djibouti has also been seeking to normalize its relations with Eritrea for some years. Djibouti, a small country with a high strategic value, is a bit like the eye of the storm, a land of peace and mediation in the heart of a tormented region.
The electrical challenge
The commissioning of the electricity interconnection line with Ethiopia in May 2011 - the idea for the project was born in 1985! - has radically changed the situation, considerably reducing the bill. But Ethiopia, which gets 95 percent of its electricity from hydro dams, is also going through an energy crisis that is affecting the electricity supply of its neighbors. Severe droughts that affect water levels have led to a production deficit and rationing phases that have even led Ethiopia to suspend exports. In view of Djibouti's growing internal demand, the country would like to secure a national source of production. Geothermal and wind power could be favoured, as one of Djibouti's ambitions is to operate with "100% green" energy. At least this would be a good way to make up for the energy deficit. The project to build a 30 MW photovoltaic solar power plant in the Grand Bara desert, supported by the French group Engie, should contribute to greater energy independence.
Water, a national priority
Djibouti has some of the lowest water resources in the world, most of which come from volcanic aquifers. However, the growing need for water has led to intensive exploitation of this groundwater. The overall level and quality of groundwater has fallen. Repeated droughts, population growth and the development of water-intensive infrastructure have aggravated the situation. The Ministry of Hydraulics and the National Water and Sanitation Office of Djibouti (ONEAD) have made the development of the water sector a national priority. Several large-scale projects have been implemented, including the construction of a drinking water pipeline between Ethiopia and Djibouti and the construction of a desalination plant in Doraleh, which should eventually cover 60% of the Djibouti capital's needs. However, access to sanitation remains below 30% outside the capital and despite efforts to keep its population thirst-free, the issue of water will remain central to Djibouti. The country is already on the list of the 20 countries most affected by water scarcity in a world where water resources are becoming increasingly scarce. Arid regions are the most threatened and could experience long periods of decline in the future, according to a World Bank report (2016).
