Towards an emergence of Senegal in 2035?
Since 2015, economic growth has led to a number of improvements in the country, particularly in terms of infrastructure, which is being modernized in various areas. The opening of a new airport, the construction of Africa's first regional express train (TER), the opening up of the Casamance region and the ongoing construction of the Diamniadio economic hub, which promises to relieve traffic congestion in Dakar, are all investments that, while increasing public debt, offer Senegal new prospects for the future. Under the leadership of President Macky Sall, the Plan Sénégal Émergent, adopted in 2014, lays the foundations for an innovative development strategy based on a strong, sustainable economy, human development and better governance. Although several sectors are beginning to benefit from this system, enabling the country to maintain fine growth, the plan still benefits the population little, whose per capita GDP growth is still low, at around 0.6% per year. Poverty still affects almost half the population, and unemployment and illiteracy rates remain high, in a country where the population, half of which is under 20, is growing every year. With a Human Development Index of 0.511 by 2022, there is still a long way to go before a middle class emerges capable of pulling the economy upwards. In addition to maintaining economic growth through increased private investment, the State will need to improve living conditions for its population, which will undoubtedly require major investment in health, education and employment, if it is to achieve its goal by 2035.
Tourism, an engine of development
From the conflicts in Casamance to the economic crisis of 2018, through the Ebola epidemic that had finally not affected Senegal, many factors have disrupted over the past twenty years the good health of tourism in the land of Teranga. Not to mention the global health crisis of the coronavirus which affected the years 2020 and 2021 and which was a major loss of earnings for all tourism professionals. Yet known as one of the most stable countries in Africa, Senegal has many undeniable tourist assets. Starting with its legendary welcome and hospitality, which make the reputation of this sunny country. It is also a pleasant seaside destination, with more than 700 km of coastline, where some beaches, especially those of Casamance, offer real postcard landscapes. The country also attracts many birdwatchers and hunters who come to indulge their passion. In recent years, the cultural offer has also developed with the opening of several museums in Dakar and Saint-Louis, most of which are private initiatives. To boost its tourism activity, which currently represents nearly 6% of GDP, Senegal is banking on the development of modern infrastructure, making it easier to arrive and travel in the country. For example, since the opening of Blaise Diagne Airport in late 2017, air traffic has picked up sharply, with an increase of more than 8%, particularly with the arrival of new companies such as Air Senegal. Toll highways have been built to facilitate the movement of people, and others are planned. As for the Farafenni cross-border bridge, which will be inaugurated in 2019, in addition to promoting economic exchanges between Senegal and Gambia, it will open up Casamance, one of the most beautiful regions. The country of Teranga wants to be ambitious for the next few years and wants to reach the goal of 5 million tourists by 2025.
Agriculture, a potential to exploit
Representing around 15% of the country's GDP and employing nearly half of the population, the agricultural sector is also tending to become more dynamic and modernized, and is now at the heart of the Plan Sénégal Émergent. Between food and cash crops, Senegal is trying to find the right balance to diversify its agricultural production, achieve food self-sufficiency and increase its exports. For many decades, peanut cultivation, the focus of government investment, held a monopoly on the sector, accounting for up to 80% of exports. However, from 1970 onwards, this sector experienced an unprecedented crisis, and farmers struggled to sell their harvests, which led to a drop in prices and a significant loss of income for farmers. It was not until 2015 that the sector recovered, with a production of more than one million tons of peanuts, of which China is now the main buyer. After this crisis, the State changed its strategies and carried out various action plans to develop this sector. Numerous investments were made from Saint-Louis to Podor, in the Senegal River valley, with the aim of achieving self-sufficiency in rice. Although this challenge has still not been met, it was planned for 2017, Senegal's rice production has nevertheless increased fourfold between 2014 and 2019. In addition to rice, the government has finally decided to make horticulture one of the levers of the sector, by investing in the Senegal River valley and the Niayes coastal strip. Tomatoes, onions, green beans, corn and squash, production, which has been growing rapidly since 2012, reached nearly 1.5 million tons in 2018. Not enough to cover the country's entire needs yet, but this high-potential sector offers some future prospects.
Mineral resources and hydrocarbons, promising fields?
From phosphate to gold, zircon, iron and copper, among other metals and minerals, Senegal's subsoils offer great mineral wealth, of which the country exploits only a portion. Through its new, more flexible mining code adopted in 2016, Senegal hopes to attract more and more investors and generate more resources from mineral exploitation, while preserving the surrounding populations. For this sector, if properly regulated, could become an engine of growth and prosperity for the country in the years to come, employing for the moment about 14% of the population. Already with more than 1.6 million tons produced in 2019, phosphate is one of the pillars of this sector, which has been exploited since the 1940s. Although Senegal is the 16th largest producer in the world, it hopes to reach the top 10 in the coming years. It also aims to become one of the largest exporters of gold on the African continent by 2035, with production reaching 16.24 tons in 2020. In addition to the Sabodala and Kharakhéna mines, near Kédougou, the Mako mine, which has been in operation since 2018, offers great prospects for exploitation and therefore revenue for the country. On the hydrocarbon side, the discovery since 2014 of significant oil and gas deposits off the coast of Senegal has raised the hopes of the government and the population. Several foreign oil companies are beginning to invest in the country to start exploiting these resources by the end of 2023, whose reserves are estimated at more than one billion barrels of oil and about 1,100 billion m³ of gas. Senegal will therefore soon enter the ranks of hydrocarbon producing countries and could even become one of the top 10 gas producers in Africa. But if this windfall offers new perspectives for the country, will it benefit the population? Only time will tell...
The country's issues
While Senegal's politics, and particularly its democracy, place it at the top of the list of African nations, its economy does not. Dakar is far from being the leader of West Africa in this area, a role more readily attributed to Abidjan in Côte d'Ivoire. Its GDP, despite an average annual growth rate of 6.5%, is still too low.
Senegal, one of Africa's most aided states, is struggling to overcome its external debt, which is estimated to be close to CFAF 900 billion by 2020 and is growing every year. The bigwigs of Dakar, which is home to 90% of the country's industries, do not compensate for unemployment, which is around 15% of the population. This rate rises to 27% for those under 25 years old. The exodus to foreign countries is not an easy task in some provinces either, as work is known to be easier to find in European countries. This explains those missing people in Podor or Bakel who, in Paris, get up earlier than the average and dress in green to take care of the garbage or to do difficult and unhealthy jobs. All this in order to send a money order at the end of the month and to support the family that stayed behind. The exodus does not only affect the middle class and the country is suffering from a lack of elites. The country's economy tends to be taken in hand by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). The structural results are there, but the industrialists denounce inadequate models imported from other countries and which apply badly to the Senegalese context. However, Senegal aspires to raise its economy by 2035, diversify its economic resources, modernize the country and improve the daily lives of its people. Perhaps the revenues from future hydrocarbon developments will help Senegal in its quest for a better future for both its economy and its people?
