The heavy legacy of President Karimov
Following independence, the "Karimov clan" seized power, creating a family oligarchy that managed, over time, to control all aspects of Uzbekistan's economy and finances, appropriating raw materials and resources and prohibiting the development of personal initiative and any form of liberalism. In this sense, Uzbekistan, like Turkmenistan today, has shown itself to be the best pupil of the Soviet legacy, putting an entire society under control, prohibiting any challenge and monopolizing all wealth.
The economy, in particular, remained based on the monoculture of cotton, in a system where prices were always, as in the Brezhnev era, fixed by the state, before the harvest.
The "Uzbek way" very quickly proved to be a bitter failure, leading only to the reinforcement of a dictatorship that was increasingly suffocating the country, where only the antics of the president's daughter still made people smile - dramatically!
The new president Shavkat Mirziyoyev has to deal with this dark legacy in order to find a new way, to modernize and liberate.
A greater openness to the world
From the very beginning of his term, Mirziyoyev has given major directions that show he is leaning toward a continuity solution. And Uzbekistan's economic model is now more along the lines of what Kazakhstan has been doing since the late 1990s: exploiting national resources through joint ventures and partnering with international players who have the know-how and technical expertise in the relevant sectors. And in this respect, Uzbekistan is rather well supplied, with large deposits of gas (the country's estimated reserves are 3 million cubic meters), gold, uranium, but also zinc, silver and copper.
At the same time as the economy was opening up, the country was modernizing and finally breaking with the cotton monoculture. Everywhere fields of wheat, sunflowers and corn are blooming, putting an end to the century-long reign of cotton, so greedy for water and so polluting for the land.
A growing service sector
In addition to the modernization of the primary and secondary sectors, the tertiary sector is also growing, a sector whose development was previously particularly hampered by a lack of freedom and corruption. This development is today particularly palpable in the tourist sector, where private actors are multiplying at great speed: hotels, travel agencies, car rental companies... But in reality it concerns all parts of society.
High stakes
Despite increased and promising contacts with the West in the energy and tourism sectors, Uzbekistan needs time to make the necessary economic transition, in addition to the political and social transition. Indeed, it is estimated that until 2016, 5% of Uzbeks accounted for 95% of the country's wealth. It will take more than a change of president for a better distribution of wealth to be observed in society and for a middle class worthy of the name to be created.
And in this respect, the creation of cities within cities, as shown by the Tashkent City project, a high-end city reserved for the richest categories of the population, proves that democratization is not really underway, and that for the moment it is more a question of satisfying the upper echelons of Uzbek society than of allowing the whole country to benefit from the changes underway.
Construction of all kinds
The engine of development is and will be the building. Everywhere we destroy to rebuild, often in spite of heritage and ecology. Suburban areas are appearing everywhere and office buildings are flourishing in the new urban centers. To populate all these living and working spaces, the government supports real estate credit on a large scale. The banks are asked to grant loans and credits, which they are doing in spades. It looks like a real estate bubble, reminiscent of the years before the subprime crisis in the US.
The rise of Chinese investment, as part of the pharaonic "New Silk Roads" project, could, however, provide answers to Uzbekistan's economic problems, while raising other questions. The initiatives proposed since 2013 by Beijing in the direction of Central Asia, including investments in transportation (the tunnel allowing the passage of the high-speed train from Tashkent to the Ferghana Valley is the best illustration of this), are upsetting the economic balances in the region, while bringing promises of development that are still difficult to assess. Like the other countries on these new silk roads, Uzbekistan welcomes these Chinese investments, while remaining wary of their political consequences. The risk of excessive dependence is real, and the link with Russia is often invoked to balance the relationship with external powers.
What about tourists?
This wind of change has consequences for the visitor to Uzbekistan in terms of travel conditions. The fact that a visa is no longer required is just one facet of the modernization of the country's political, administrative and economic life. Another novelty, which will delight visitors, is to finally be able to acquire a local SIM card and to be able to communicate easily and freely during his trip. The 4G and the high speed are not necessarily assured everywhere, but it is a first notable step!
Apart from tourism, the country is finally turning towards the 21st century in many other areas: modernization of roads, trains, administrative buildings, the economy, agriculture... This country, which has remained frozen for so long under the Karimov lead, must now catch up and develop in all directions. This is the challenge that awaits society, the new president, his government, and all of Uzbek society, so eager for change.
In 2020, Uzbekistan, like the rest of the world, has experienced a halt in its transformation due to the pandemic. Confinement, the disappearance of the tourist windfall and the lack of state aid have caused serious economic damage to the tourist sector. But the figures of frequentation show a revival of travelers from 2022, which allows to be rather optimistic for the continuation.
