Controlled demographic growth
Its population is expected to peak in 2050, with almost 230 million Brazilians, before slowly declining and stabilizing at 180 million in 2100, the same as the Brazilian population in 2005. The country has completed its demographic transition. Mortality and birth rates have fallen, and natural increase (the difference between birth and death rates) is low. The fall in the infant mortality rate has been spectacular, accompanying Brazil's development and emergence. The rate fell from 145 deaths per thousand births in 1950 to 48 in 1990 and 13 per thousand in 2023. Admittedly, this rate is still higher than in Western countries, but it reflects the country's development and the (relative) efficiency of its healthcare system. The overall rise in living standards, urbanization and literacy have led to a fall in the fertility rate. Ultimately, this will lead to a gradual aging of the population. By 2030, the proportion of the population aged over 65 should exceed that of the under-15s.
Many challenges
The challenges facing Brazil are therefore paradoxically twofold. The country must educate, care for and integrate into the job market a numerically significant fringe of the population, but also plan to adapt its healthcare and social prevention services to a rapidly ageing population, with new generations mechanically replacing fewer and fewer old ones. As in other countries where the demographic transition has been completed, it is accompanied by an epidemiological transition. Mortality from infectious diseases is falling, and is being supplanted by chronic and degenerative pathologies, as well as cardiovascular disease. The uneven distribution of the population makes it difficult to set up a coherent and efficient health and education system.
A largely immigrant population
The composition and distribution of the Brazilian population cannot be understood without taking into account the weight of history. Brazil's population is largely the product of immigration, from the beginnings of colonization until the 1930s. Of the 3 to 5 million natives present when the Portuguese conquerors arrived, only a few hundred thousand remain today, living in very difficult social conditions. The Portuguese also took with them, in chains, over 5 million slaves torn from their African lands, from the Gulf of Guinea, Mozambique and Angola. Slavery was abolished in 1888, and immigration was mainly European. Between 1870 and 1930, over 5 million immigrants set foot on Brazilian soil. In 1891, the historic figure of 210,000 annual migrants was reached; annual arrivals never fell below 30,000. At first, immigration was mainly Italian - the young Italian Republic encouraged the departure of overpopulated rural areas - and then the number of Spanish and Portuguese increased. The first Japanese arrived in Brazil in 1908, forming the first Japanese community outside the Land of the Rising Sun. In the 1920s, Eastern Europeans made their appearance. Finally, some 18,000 Syrians and Lebanese, most of them merchants, settled in Brazil in the 1910s to escape Ottoman persecution. The Great Depression of the 1930s brought mass immigration to a virtual halt. In 1900, over 7% of Brazilians were foreigners, compared with 0.3% today - one of the lowest rates among emerging and developed countries. Today, there are 1,000,000 foreigners (including over 270,000 from neighboring Venezuela, which is facing one of the most serious economic crises in its history), outnumbering emigrant Brazilians (over 3 million).
Brazil, a mixed race epic
Brazil's external image is often that of a "racial democracy". The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) defines six population categories: Whites, Blacks, Mestizos, Asians, Amerindians and "undeclared". According to the 2022 IBGE census, the "white" population remains significant, but is no longer in the majority (43.5%). It is lower than that of mestizos (45.3%). Black" people make up 10.3% of the population, and Asians (Japanese and Koreans) 0.4%. Lastly, Amerindians now make up 0.6% of the Brazilian population, a slight increase. There is a certain demographic dynamism in this Indian population, which tends to grow slightly faster than the Brazilian population in general, and the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of black and mixed-race populations is slightly higher than that of white populations, but tends to converge more and more towards the latter. Overall, the Asian population is concentrated in the states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso. The Amerindian population is more numerous in Amazonia, where it is divided between various reserves and is unfortunately the victim of violence and plundering of its territories by large landowners and gold miners(garimpeiros). The Nordeste is marked by a rich cultural mix, the fruit of African, Indian and European "syncretism". Northern folklore is tinged with a " cabocla " tradition (a blend of Indian and European culture), such as the highly popular Bumba meu boi folk festival. The south of the country is more marked by European immigration. The presence of Swiss and German " colonias " can still be seen in the deliberately Bavarian appearance of the roofs of certain homes, or in certain beer festivals where the consumption of hopped beverages is punctuated by the sound of oumpapa musik.
An unevenly distributed population
Brazil's population is not evenly distributed across the country. Overall, Brazil is a sparsely populated country (30 inhabitants/km², 3.5 times less than the French population density). Moreover, population densities are highly uneven. The Amazon basin is a vast, sparsely populated area, but it is home to major metropolises such as Manaus and Belém, which, with the exception of Paris, far outnumber the French metropolises in terms of population. In addition to geographical determinism, the distribution of Brazil's population close to the coast is partly explained by history. The colonial administration built its ports there, as well as its administrative, economic and military centers. Today, the imbalance in population distribution is due to the size of the urban population. Brazil is an urban country, with almost 80% of the population living in cities. There are 26 metropolitan regions, home to 75 million people, or 40% of the Brazilian population. Of the 14 major metropolises with more than a million inhabitants, 11 are located on the coast. Only Manaus, Brasilia and Belo Horizonte escape this rule. Brazil's largest conurbation, São Paulo, is a megalopolis with over 21 million inhabitants. Rio and São Paulo are the two Brazilian megacities according to the UN definition (cities with more than 10 million inhabitants), and together they are home to the equivalent of almost half the population of France. This urban presence is particularly strong in Brazil's Sudeste region, which includes the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Esperito Santo. A dense urban fabric of small and medium-sized towns is structured around the conurbations of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, an urban and industrial "triangle" that concentrates 40% of Brazilian GDP. Two important and original geographical phenomena seem to be taking shape. Some geographers are talking about the structuring of a megalopolis joining Rio, São Paulo and Buenos Aires in Argentina. Finally, we are witnessing an original process of "demetropolization". Populations are tending to leave the Brazilian metropolises for smaller towns, perhaps anticipating an urban movement that will affect the countries of the North.
The Portuguese language, a unifying factor
One of Brazil's unifying factors is undoubtedly the use of the Portuguese idiom throughout the country, with slight regional variations in accent and expression. Immigrant populations have blended into the Brazilian mainstream, and while a few elderly people in the Pomerode region of Santa Catarina state are said to still speak an old Pomeranian dialect, the original languages have gradually disappeared. The various indigenous peoples are trying to preserve their languages and cultures, with the help of FUNAI (National Indian Foundation), but many native idioms are threatened with extinction. Young Brazilians of indigenous origin sometimes move to the city to work or study (even if they still too often suffer discrimination), and distance themselves from their ancestral language and traditional way of life. This is a far cry from the achievements of Quebec's First Peoples. Fortunately, more and more progressive Brazilians are aware of the immeasurable value of indigenous linguistic and cultural heritage, and programs and associations for the promotion and dissemination of indigenous culture and crafts are springing up in many places (such as Paraty and Cuiabá). Last but not least, certain African languages such as Yoruba have been maintained as languages of worship. Candomblé ceremonies are held in Yoruba, especially in Salvador. Many place names (Iguaçu or Ipanema), animal names (the anaconda is known as sucuri, the puma as suçuarana) and plant names are of indigenous origin.
