Discover Bahrain : Current issues

A small archipelago in the Persian Gulf, Bahrain cultivates a delicate balance between tribal heritage, economic openness and controlled political reform. A monarchy ruled by the Sunni Al Khalifa family since the ^18th century, the kingdom adopted a constitution in 2002, which was supposed to modernize its institutions. But behind this facade of parliamentary democracy, power remains tightly concentrated in the hands of the reigning dynasty. Marked by the uprisings of 2011, at the time of the Arab Spring, Bahrain has since tried to project the image of a stable, forward-looking state, banking on services, Islamic finance and tourism to offset the decline in its oil resources. Yet deep social inequalities, sectarian tensions and the marginalization of the Shiite majority still call into question the solidity of the Bahraini model.

An all-powerful monarchy

Located between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Bahrain is the smallest of the Gulf states. Its dynasty, the Al Khalifa, descended from Sunni tribes from Kuwait, has reigned undivided since 1783. Although the constitution adopted in 2002 introduced a bicameral parliament and parliamentary elections based on universal suffrage, the essential levers of power remain in the hands of the royal family. King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa appoints the members of the Consultative Council, controls the army and nominates key ministers. Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad is Prime Minister, Minister of Defense and Supreme Vice-Commander of the Armed Forces.

This concentration of power has long fuelled the frustration of a large part of the population, the majority of whom are Shiite, excluded from decision-making positions. The 2002 elections did mark a symbolic step forward, with the appointment of six women, including one Christian, to the Consultative Council, and a relatively high voter turnout. But since then, hopes of democratic reform have been dashed.

The Pearl's revolt

In February 2011, in the wake of the Arab Spring, thousands of Bahrainis took to the streets to demand political reform, an end to discrimination and a real parliamentary monarchy. The rallying point was Manama's Pearl Square, which quickly became the movement's headquarters. The uprising was mainly led by Shiites, but Sunnis also took part, in a spirit of national unity.

The regime's response was brutal: deployment of the army, mass arrests, torture and the demolition of Pearl Square, which had become a symbol of protest. Supported by Gulf Cooperation Council troops, notably from Saudi Arabia, the monarchy quelled the revolt. The movement was crushed, at the cost of dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries.

Faced with international criticism, the King launched an independent commission of inquiry, chaired by an Egyptian jurist. Its conclusions, published in November 2011, acknowledged systematic abuses. The government then promised reforms: an increase in the minimum wage, parliamentary control over government appointments, and oversight of the security services. But few of these recommendations were actually implemented.

A muzzled opposition

Since 2011, the Bahraini political scene has largely closed up. Parties have been banned and replaced by "political associations", deprived of real prerogatives. The main opposition groups, notably Al-Wefaq (Shiite) and Waad (secular), have been dissolved by the courts. Several opposition figures have been imprisoned, including human rights activist Nabeel Rajab, who has been convicted on several occasions for "propaganda" and "insulting institutions".

The 2014 and 2018 parliamentary elections were boycotted by the opposition, in a climate of widespread mistrust. Independent candidates, often close to the government, won the majority of seats. As for the media, they are closely monitored, and the opposition newspaper Al-Wasat was suspended in 2017. The use of social networks is also scrutinized: several Internet users have been convicted for tweets critical of the government.

An economy in transition

Long dependent on its modest oil reserves, Bahrain was the first Gulf country to understand the need to diversify its economy. The oil sector, which still accounted for 43% of GDP in 2010, now generates less than 20%. To compensate, Manama is banking on services, Islamic finance, technology and tourism.

Bahrain's financial center is home to over 350 banking and financial institutions. The country has become a regional hub for Islamic finance, with 24 specialized banks and nearly $10 billion in assets under management. The kingdom's offshore status and advantageous tax regime have attracted significant capital flows, particularly from the Gulf.

Tourism is the other mainstay of this strategy. With over 12 million visitors expected by 2023, mainly from Saudi Arabia, the sector is enjoying sustained growth. The kingdom has invested massively in its infrastructure: hotels, shopping malls, beach resorts and cultural events. The aim is to make Bahrain a destination for leisure and business. Over the next few years, the government hopes to generate more than a billion dollars in annual tourism revenue.

Ongoing challenges

Behind this facade of modernity, the social divide remains deep. Unemployment particularly affects young Shiites, who accuse the government of favoritism towards Sunnis. Access to the civil service, the army and positions of responsibility remains largely closed to them. Certain Shiite districts, such as Sitra and Diraz, are regularly the scene of tensions with the security forces.

In terms of civil liberties, the country remains under close surveillance by international organizations. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch regularly denounce arbitrary arrests, unfair trials and torture in prisons. Despite this, Bahrain remains a strategic ally of the Western powers. The kingdom is home to the US^5th Fleet, essential for control of the Strait of Hormuz, and maintains close ties with the UK and France.

Over the past twenty years, Bahrain has certainly transformed its economy and improved certain human development indicators. But this progress remains fragile as long as political reform is not accompanied by genuine democratic openness. Concessions by the authorities often appear tactical, designed to defuse criticism without calling into question the regime's authoritarian architecture.

In the short term, the kingdom's stability rests on two pillars: the unfailing support of neighboring monarchies and the relative apathy of a divided population tired of repression. In the longer term, Bahrain will have to face up to its contradictions: reconciling growth and equity, security and freedom, the ruling minority and the marginalized Shiite majority.