The weight of 2010

After the massacres in the Ferghana Valley in 2010 following Bakiyev's attempt to hold on to power from which he had been driven out by the streets, the country must, above all, reconcile the two clans. This is what Roza Otunbaieva, a former diplomat and emblematic figure of the Tulip Revolution, who was appointed by the opposition leaders to lead the country after the ousting of Bakiyev, is committed to. She is committed to pushing through a referendum on a new constitution reducing the powers of the President of the Republic in favour of those of Parliament. After more than a year in power, she will hand over to her successor, Almazbek Atambaev, at the end of 2011. Reforms then began in this small, wounded country, still the poorest in Central Asia, where, for the first time since its independence, a president, who is moreover openly 'democratic,' came to power peacefully.

Growing difficulties

Atambaev's term of office was marked by economic difficulties, as Kyrgyzstan could not do without Moscow's tutelage and international aid. Seeking to open up as much as possible to tourism, with the aim of bringing foreign currency into the country, Kyrgyzstan abolished visas for some 60 mainly European nationalities and facilitated the conditions of entry and stay in the country. This "laxity" at the borders has consequences: these measures have been blamed for facilitating the entry of Uighur terrorists into the country, as demonstrated by the attack on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek in August 2016. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan is the only republic in Central Asia where radical Islam seems to be making a strong comeback, particularly in the south, in the Ferghana Valley, to the extent that the government launched a massive poster campaign in 2016 in an attempt to alert the people to the dangers of radicalisation through religion. Economic crisis, fear at the borders, radicalisation of society: all these factors pushed Atambaev in 2016 to take a step backwards and amend the Constitution again to give more weight to the executive. A new presidential drift that leads, as always, to an alternation of power. The Prime Minister of Atambaev, Sooronbay Jeenbekov nevertheless succeeded his President in a peaceful manner, through the ballot box, and with the organisation of a second round, as never before in the former republics of the USSR of Central Asia.

An economy rooted in the primary sector

After independence, under the presidency of Azkar Akaev, the Kyrgyz government very quickly embarked on reforms aimed at liberalising and opening up its economy: Kyrgyzstan was the first of the former Soviet republics to join the WTO. The country experienced a fairly severe economic recession between 1991 and 1995, just after independence, but the reforms enabled the country to quickly return to growth, which approached 10% at the end of the 2000s. Nevertheless, the crisis, which hit the country and its main trading partners hard, stumbled the Kyrgyz economy, which in 2013 showed negative growth rates.

Less well endowed with natural resources than most of its Central Asian neighbours, despite the presence on its territory of the Kumtor gold mine, one of the largest in the world, Kyrgyzstan is still characterised by a predominantly rural and partly nomadic economy and is struggling to take off economically. Its industrial structure remains very limited. Its only exportable and profitable resource is electricity, the vast majority of which is generated by hydroelectric dams that grow like mushrooms on all the country's rivers. Kyrgyzstan is playing the game of electricity for gas with its Uzbek neighbour, without the partners always managing to reach an agreement, which leads to many heating cuts in Kyrgyzstan..

An uncertain future

With a gross domestic product of just over $8 billion in 2019, Kyrgyzstan is the second poorest country in the CIS after neighbouring Tajikistan, with almost 40 per cent of its population living below the poverty line. The landlocked nature of the country and widespread corruption at all levels, both political and industrial, make foreign investment difficult. Moreover, the country remains seriously affected by the crisis in the West, but especially in Russia and China, which are its main suppliers and customers. The closure in Moscow of several brands and markets has led to a significant drop in the economic activity of this "economic lung" of Bishkek that had become the great Dordoy bazaar, which supplies textiles and other products to many markets in Russia and China. After almost 30 years of independence, the new economic situation is still struggling to emerge.

A difficult neighbourhood

It is not only the Russian and Chinese giants that impact Kyrgyz political and economic news. The more direct neighbours Uzbekistan and Tajikistan also pose certain problems. For Uzbekistan, it is above all a question of ensuring the supply of water to maintain its large cultivated and irrigated areas. And Uzbekistan in recent years has been very unhappy with the increasing number of dams in Kyrgyz and Tajik water towers, leading to tensions that are still being felt at the community level, particularly in the Ferghana Valley. Tensions are also high with Tajikistan. Throughout 2019, border incidents resulting in several injuries occurred in the Batken region. These incidents are the consequence of disagreements over border lines: a veritable Pandora's box in Central Asia. The two countries effectively share nearly 1,000 km of border, only half of which is clearly demarcated. At the beginning of 2020, the two presidents seemed to have agreed on the principle of an exchange of territory, but it remains to be put into practice on the ground and to ease the tensions and resentments that have arisen in all the villages concerned.